Post Lockdown COVID Phase

Dr SR Narahari, Director, Institute of Applied Dermatology, Kasaragod, Kerala

How will the virus behave post lockdown? The virus doesn’t know about lockdown or economy! It infects people. Resurgence may happen once public transport begins. India probably initiated lockdown very early that helped in containing the spread. Where lockdown implementation didn’t work as expected is now reporting a high number of cases. Herd immunity as part of the Indian population and younger age are in favour of taming virus during the post lockdown. Kerala doctors believe that virus itself is less virulent. Elderly in India, in general, avoid crowd, speed and disorderliness of Indian cities and towns. Hence death rate is likely to be lesser in India post lockdown. The virus may get reactivated when the rainy season begins and could spread pan-India but may cause less devastation than in the Western countries.

Health care workers and doctors of India are in general well trained and committed. Their ability for early diagnosis, better managing co-morbidities and lifesaving abilities would help in the fight against the resurgence. The virus itself is likely to become less pathogenic due to millions of multiplications in millions of humans in India. Ayurvedic and homoeopathic medicines and our home remedies are likely to benefit the Indian population. An ordinary Indian has the culture of namaste, not embracing or shaking hands, not using tissue papers will be a great boon in preventing the spread.

Kerala identified the first case in late January, and the first case reported in Kasaragod on the 31^st. Kerala benefits by Malayalee’s migration to other places in the world, including Wuhan. People and Bureaucracy, especially health department, understands the developments around the world. Kerala has India’s best clinicians and health care providers and micro-level health facilities. The government health facility in Kerala is well equipped; Government health care providers are well paid, motivated and competitive. It is the primary reason to undertake early prevention activities, including setting up quarantine facilities for people returning from Wuhan. Kerala has an educated population and understands the importance of preventive measures. Well-connected but by their general culture population is restricted in movement within the state and socialising Malayalee favours Kerala Samajams and related community groups when they are outside the region. Poor in Kerala never starve. Because of better social systems and peoples’ cooperation within the society greatly benefitted the Government’s efforts in controlling the disease.

COVID 19, thought as superficial respiratory tract infection forced the racing working class of cities around the world to keep indoors. It is now devastating the economy worldwide may be due to the panic reaction of Governments, corporate and business class. India, a country larger than a union of many European countries and habitat to the maximum single conglomeration of people on earth, it begins its economic activity post lockdown in various districts. Rural agricultural activity has not come to a sudden halt even during the lockdown. With vast reserves of food, the nation would not allow any citizen to go hungry.

In this extraordinary time Governments, NGOs, charity organisations and philanthropists are coming out to support. Volunteers are working round the clock to feed the needy. Free food grain supply to rich and poor alike, small business groups and entrepreneurs supporting their organised and unorganised labour force at least partially is observed in all parts of India. People of India have risen to the occasion. Albeit section of ‘rich and poor’ with ‘ignorance and arrogance’ which is inherent to centuries of Indian mind-set are now posing a danger to themselves and the society. People who are receiving service may cooperate with volunteers and authorities until normalcy attained. The officers and the public should not show a panic reaction instead of resilience shown by the people during the lockdown. Governments and media should focus on preventing resurgence by social distancing, avoiding crowding in public places, and eat what is required to keep the digestive system under good health. I also recommend people to take Ayurveda or homoeopathy as per the advice of experts or traditional home remedies of the season that they have been using since childhood.

Finally, the assessment of the mortality impact of COVID 19 in pan-India requires careful statistical evaluation. Due to the large population of India, death in numbers is always high compared to less populated nations.  The number of diseases is also high in the country. All patients dying of old age, other conditions should be carefully eliminated before arriving at COVID 19 numbers